The Future of Jobs
Today in the U.S. we received bad news regarding employment, as the number of new jobs created in the past month fell, after several months of relatively robust gains. While one month does not make a new trend, the news has shaken the markets as they fear a slide backward into higher unemployment rather than a continuation of the long slog out of the deep recession. The website, Calculated Risk, has been keeping track of how the U.S. job picture compares in this recovery to past recessions, and the chart below illustrates how challenging it has been. What is going on? One issue is that interventions to stimulate the economy have been too small, and now, in a spooky repeat of 1937, the U.S. Congress has decided to focus away from jobs and toward austerity. At the same time, however, something deeper may be going on as well, a change in the nature of work itself. Follow me below the chart.
From Calculated Risk: Job Losses and Recovery Across U.S. Recessions
So, the question is, is something deeper at play that a mere recovery from recession? Recently I was asked by a publication in Sydney, Australia called HR Leader to write a short piece on the future of work. You can link to the article here, in the May 2011 issue. And, below is what I had to say about the changing nature of work itself.
“Daddy, what’s a job?” – The future of employment
In the future, people will work “stints” rather than “jobs”, writes Glen Hiemstra
There was a time in history when no one had a job as we think of it. It was only in the last century that the modern concept of a “job” as work exchanged for wages and benefits was invented.
In the past three decades the social and economic fabric that created this employment system has frayed and now is rending before our eyes. Around the world floods of young people face economies in which there may never be a sufficient number of jobs by the standard definition. In older industrialised nations the ability of employers to pay both good wages and benefits is increasingly challenged. Employment has gone completely global. The acceleration of technology has meant that fewer people are required for many tasks.
So what will become of employment in the next twenty to fifty years? Any quick search will offer lists of exotic-sounding jobs of the future – gene pharmers, space tour guides, body part makers, Hollywood holographers, and the like. Such lists are entertaining. They may even be accurate. But they miss the deeper story of the future of employment.
In the real future you will be working at a stint rather than a job. To work at a stint is to become part of a project team for 18 months, followed by joining three friends doing a start-up business that folds after two years, after which you sign on with a multinational which disappears in a merger…and the beat goes on. This requires a reinvention of the social contract around security and benefits.
Since you have become a stint worker, you will have shifted from being an employee to being a free agent. This will not be new, as increasing numbers of us are already free agents in 2011, but for most of us it requires a change in perspective. The biggest change involves learning how to think of your self as a company of one.
The most profound shift may be the disappearance of employers as we have known them, as they are replaced by amoeba-like networks that come together to complete certain projects and tasks. Consider a feature film production. The project is conceived, some key people flesh out a proposal, funding is arranged, a global network of talent is hired, they work together for weeks or months, and then disband, never to work in that exact combination again.
Obviously there will remain many exceptions to this enterprise model. The corner grocer, the local coffee house, the dry-cleaning store down the street will likely continue to be small and stable, with fixed employees, though even these employees will likely be free agents working on a stint.
The places that we work will change, especially for knowledge workers – those of us who commute to offices today mostly to sit and type words on machines, look at computer screens, and talk to other people in person and by phone. Tomorrow’s machines will make today’s computing and communication look primitive, as they enable full 3-D, immersive and visual interaction with others in real time wherever you are. Data and information will be in the Cloud – available everywhere, all the time. Thus, we will come to the office only when it is really desirable to get together. The offices themselves will consist of inviting meeting and collaboration spaces, and “hotel” stations for free agents to plug in. The typical company may use half the office footprint it uses today for the same number of people.
By 2050 a surprising amount of work will be done directly by intelligent machines. Think of how certain jobs have become similar around the world, using the same technologies, processes, designs and so on. Consider engineering, construction, manufacturing, transportation, wholesale and retail services, even hotel and restaurant work. Watch a re-run of the IBM computer “Watson” winning the TV game show “Jeopardy” the week of 14 February 2011. Imagine this machine with 20 years more learning, add in improved vision and better dexterity for robots, and with the right economic scenario it is easy to imagine literally millions of jobs currently performed by humans being done completely by machines.
In such a world where fewer people are needed to produce all required goods and services, what will people do? The answer may be surprising – replace technology with a world made by hand. More people, rather than fewer, will be working the land by hand, making things by hand, teaching and entertaining others in person. Many people will work in this way by choice as a counter-weight to an overly technological world. It is even possible that, in one particular economic and energy future where the global economy retracts drastically in the face of energy shortages and climate change catastrophes, work will become more human-centered and less technological by necessity rather than choice.
Whichever future emerges, employment of tomorrow will differ from the jobs of today.
In this model, risk does shift to individual workers, especially for benefits like health care insurance and retirement, and also continuing education – things that used to be provided by employers. That is why I am a supporter of a “single-payer” health care system in the U.S., and a robust Social Security system, because these two things would free people up not to worry so much about their own future. Yes, a bit higher tax rate, but big savings for the country as a whole. As for keeping up to date, that will be up to you – but there are means to do that. I once proposed a system in which between age 50 and 55 a person should be able to step out of working, collect retirement without penalty for 2 years, during which time they would re-educate and re-position themselves for the rest of their working life. Thanks for commenting.
What do you think will be the societal reaction to the increased risk your vision imagines shifting to workers?
Will, yes, the future has already happened for many of us. Good for you.
Robert – Oh I doubt Google will be the last, but clever comment. Actually the strange thing is how large the market value of companies like LinkedIn with small number of employees, and even Google, while much larger, is nothing like GM in the old days.
This is funny because I’m doing all this today, for years now. There’s a book called ‘Live Rich’ which talks about the breaking of the employment contract between employers and employees if there ever was one. I read this after getting laid off my first job in engineering after having a master’s degree. I started contracting and now I do remote IT projects from home in my PJs – the last 2 clients I never even met in person, did it fully remote from my home office. I never cared about benefits or paying into government programs. Instead I earn the income in my corporation (paying very reasonable small business taxes) and myself a dividend which is almost tax free (since my corporate income was already taxes). It’s really a dream I feel sorry for those who expect to work somewhere for 30 years, and get a pension and job security, all the while complaining about the commute and office politics.
Google the last white collar job?
I think you are spot on I and have recently been particularly cognizant of the trend having recently started my own law practice working from a home office. More and more of my colleagues are doing the same. As I ponder what my kids will be doing, I have come to the same conclusion — that they need to think of themselves as individual entrepreneurs and understand that the only way to earn a living is to sell things they help produce, or their time. They must focus their skills development on one or both.
Having said that, I think there will still be traditional jobs in government and large organizations. These may become increasingly competitive.
Carter, thanks. Many traditional jobs will continue, but even they may resemble “stint” type work.